Gellibrand
scene set
Gellibrand
is the safest ALP seat in Australia, if another party wants to win it, they
would need a swing of about 24 per cent to do so.
Gellibrand
covers mostly the inner west of Melbourne as well as some suburbs to the northwest.
The electorate is quite mixed with new
homeowners attracted by price and the proximity to the CBD who have been priced
out of other areas, first, second and third generation migrants and a mix of
light and heavy industrial areas, such as the Toyota car manufacturing plant.
The
AEC indicates that those suburbs include:
Altona, Altona
Meadows, Altona North, Braybrook, Brooklyn (part), Footscray, Footscray West,
Kingsville, Maidstone, Maribyrnong (part), Newport, Seabrook, Seaholme, South
Kingsville, Spotswood, Tottenham, Yarraville and Williamstown.
The parts of Brooklyn
and Maribyrnong that aren't part of Gellibrand are actually part of the federal
seat of Maribyrnong, which is held by Bill Shorten. Next to Maribyrnong and Gellibrand is Gorton,
also requiring a swing of over 20 per cent to change hands. The electorate to the west is Lalor, to the
east is Melbourne Ports (ALP) and Melbourne (Greens).
The seat is named
after Joseph Tice Gellibrand (1786–1837)
who was the first Attorney General of Tasmania (in 1826, then Van Diemen's
Land). After some issues locally, he
decided to explore the land to the north, and was eventually to die on an
expedition up the Barwon River in 1837.
Many people would argue that safe seats are not
that interesting. But because the seats
can be sown up by one party or another, it gives the other players a chance to
get information out in local papers and on social media. Local papers love having views of other
candidates as it shows balance.
Although, often the most interesting parts of safe seats are the goings
on within the party organisations. There
was a spat in Gellibrand over the insertion of Tim Watts for the ALP, who
didn't live in the seat, and was a former staffer to right wing ALP power broker,
Senator Steven Conroy (a Williamstown resident).
I've lived in safe seats most of my voting
life. And I was an ALP member back in
the mid 90s, in the safe Liberal seat of Higgins. In Higgins, we were more interested in
securing votes for our internal ALP grouping than just about anything
else. Some of our group went onto become
Victorian Ministers, State Secretaries, the Chief of Staff to Prime Minister
and many are still in advisor roles now with the State opposition. Internal ALP fighting was often nasty, involved
large groups of people who joined the party to vote for us, some of these were friends
and family. I haven't been a member of
the ALP for over a decade now, but would still describe myself as left, but not
hard left. At one time, I was even a
paid up member of Labor Unity!
Eventually, I moved to another electorate and was
tired of the internal goings on, which can take a good amount of time and
effort if you decide to get involved. I
wasn't keen on taking part any further, so didn't re-join. The exact year would be around 1997 or
1998. As I was only a member for at most
five years, I've been a non-member longer than I have been a member.
So there you have it, an ex ALP member reporting on
the safest ALP seat in Australia. So
far, I have already got my self blocked by one candidate after putting him
under some scrutiny, so anything is possible.
Don't let anyone tell you that campaigns in safe seats can't be fun!
A major issue in the electorate is trucks. Around 20,000 truck movements occur through
this electorate a day, and all parties have ideas on how to do this. Some believe in more public transport, others
tunnels. The previous ALP state
government had a proposal for a East/West Link, which would have taken trucks
from the Docks, through to the Western Ring Road. This proposal would have
included off ramps for trucks to get to the many 'container farms' that are
prevalent in parts of this electorate.
The Coalition government here in Victoria has recently committed to part
of this, although it is the eastern part, which includes a tunnel from the
eastern suburbs to a major toll road.
In reality, this link will do very little for those
in the West, and most of the complainers about the proposed western part were
from those who didn't live here. The
Western Link was something I support and continue to do so, even though a major
part of it would be within easy walking distance to my home.
Public transport is always a hot issue in
Gellibrand and a way of easing this is the Metro Rail Tunnel which both ALP
federally and state have said they will back, so too do the Greens. This tunnel is to run from South Kensington station
into the CBD and then along St Kilda Road, providing a cross-city option. Part of the original proposal was to extend
the tunnel further to South Yarra station, but this has little commitment at
this stage. Workers along St Kilda Road
have to put up with very busy trams in peak times, and a tunnel would ease this
congestion.
Another issue locally is childcare. There are a number of Council run facilities,
but these often have long waiting lists.
It is an area I am keen to hear more from the candidates about, as we
were offered one day a week for our daughter when she was three and a half
years old at a Council facility. This
didn't suit us, as we had found private childcare. Private childcare is increasing in costs, and
can be as difficult to get into as Council facilities where there is high
demand.
So far there have been confirmed candidates from
the ALP and Greens, with the Liberal Party (LP) nominating David McConnell, who also
ran in 2010, an Independent in John Green, Dwayne Singleton standing for
Palmer United Party (PUP), Allan
Cashion from the Australian Sex Party (ASP) and Anthony
O'Neill Australian Christians Party (ACP).
There is always the possibility of more nominating as well, but these
are those known at this time.
On a two party preferred basis in 2010, the ALP and
the LP duked it out, with ALP getting 73.90 per cent of the vote with the LP 26.10. It will be interesting to see which minor
parties will increase their numbers. In
2010 it was really a fight between the ALP, LP and Greens who gathered over 97 per
cent of the primary votes.
The Greens will be hoping to increase their primary
vote, and I would suspect be aiming to get as many votes locally as the
LP. They probably believe they can win
outright, but it would be a big ask in a seat where they haven't had wide
support across the whole seat.
No doubt the ALP will be hoping to better the
previous election where they polled 59 per cent. Interestingly, the Greens polled well at the
2010 state election in the seat of Footscray, and the number one Greens Senate
candidate is a Footscray and Gellibrand local, (and ex Mayor of Maribyrnong) Janet
Rice. The Greens candidate has been
campaigning with Mr Rice so having a friendly and locally known face will
always help.
Greens are already running a strong social media
campaign, and so is the ALP. The other
parties are yet to start fully their campaigns, but would want to start soon.
I have decided to every week tweet the number of
followers/likes on Facebook, Twitter and Google+ to give an indication of who
has the most. A winner will also be
declared. Last week it was the ALP, with
Greens winning Google+.
The ALP will win this seat. But it gets interesting in the details. Who will get second, Greens or the LP? Where will the preferences go? Will the Greens be able to keep their
momentum going for the whole campaign?
Can they spread their vote further into the electorate? When are the billboards going to arrive? When is Clive coming back to Williamstown?
I hope to interview as many of the candidates as I
can with a short survey of the same questions, keeping them to word limits to
avoid waffle. If Gellibrand has a 'meet
the candidates' I'll attend that as well, and will generally report back on the
seat and how the campaigns are going.
You can follow me on Twitter @Dusty_1. It is not
always political what I tweet, so you have been warned.
The view at the
mouth of the Yarra River including Westgate Bridge and docks which are part of
Gellibrand.
Williamstown
Beach, very popular in summer months.
The new
Landing Helicopter Dock HMAS Canberra being fitted out at BAE Systems in
Williamstown.
The beach at Altona,
including the pier. A popular place for fishing and swimming.
Many chemical plants along
this stretch of road which have legacy issues on the environment. Housing is
encroaching on these areas.
Less than 20 kilometres from the CBD, and the only rail option is a
country service, as this is a non-electrified service.